Monday, January 22, 2007

A Presidential Mission

Senator Hillary Clinton (D - NY) recently announced what many have suspected and expected for a while - her bid to return to the White House in 2009, albeit as President elect of the United States of America and not as the First Lady. While her announcement may not have been surprising, it does throw open a set of delicious questions for the forthcoming US Presidential elections.

The most relevant question of course focuses on Senator Clinton's running mate, should she win the party's nomination that is. Could it be the very popular Senator Obama (D - Ill) or the charming John Edwards, both of whom are incidentally expected to be front runners for the nomination themselves. In the event that its a Clinton-Obama ticket, the question that would then seek to be addressed is whether America was liberal enough to elect its first female President and African American Vice President. I have my reservations on this count but polls in the coming months should give a clearer indication of this assessment.

Interestingly, even though Senator Clinton has only announced her decision to set up an exploratory committee to gauge her viability as the party's candidate, the manner of her announcement (made online and not at a press briefing as is traditionally done) and her words 'I'm in and I'm in to win' pretty much underline her intention. Her words can also be interpreted as an open challenge to Senator Barack Obama, who many see as her main competition for the party nomination. Similarly the urgency of her announcement can be attributed to the need to corner prominent fundraisers and contributors before they endorse other candidates. (Senator Obama had announced the setting up of a similar exploratory committee only last week and had immediately received the endorsement of billionaire George Soros)

Needless to say, Elections 2008 and the battle for the White House promises to be a political rollercoaster and one which New Delhi should closely follow given the possibilities of another Clinton administration.

More on Bangladesh

A recent newspaper report from Bangladesh alleges that the bomb attack on Awami League leader, Sheikh Hasina was carried out by the ULFA who had in turn received assistance from the Bangladeshi intelligence agency, the National Security Intelligence (NSI). If this is indeed proven true then it would confirm the link between ULFA and Dhaka. A discerning piece by former Chief of IB, M K Dhar reiterates the same. The two articles can be read from the following links:

http://thedailystar.net/2007/01/22/d7012201044.htm

and

http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jan/19guest.htm

With this understanding in hand and the rationale for the attacks on Bihari migrants as opposed to illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam, one has to wonder when New Delhi would initiate any action against an outfit that is clearly targetting Indian interests.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

The curious case of Assam

The good Doctor's recent statement in Tinsukhia, Assam addresses the plight of the innocent Bihari migrant whilst asserting the UPA Govt's policy in the following manner:

“no one should mistake our openness for talks as a sign of weakness. I would like to make it clear that there is no room for violence and it will not be tolerated. At the same time, I will also emphasise that all problems can be sorted out through dialogue.......The Indian state has an obligation to provide security and protect the lives of its law-abiding citizens. This we will discharge, let there be no doubt on that score.”

While the speech may indeed have been inspiring and rousing, it is yet another reflection of the difference of opinion between the Government and the Congress party. Perhaps the affable Dr. Singh is not aware of the fact that the Congress came to power in Assam last year, only after having received the endorsement of the ULFA - the very outfit New Delhi seeks to now target.

There are other links here as well which are disconcerting. One, the ULFA is known to receive logistic and financial support from Islamic terrorist outfits operating out of Bangladesh. Two, because of its proximity to Bangladesh, Assam attracts the maximum number of illegal Bangladeshi migrants who have over the years become a source for vote bank politics, especially for the Congress. Three, that the Congress does not discriminate between illegal migrants and Indian citizens becomes evident with its desire to re-introduce the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act with a few necessary amendments after the same was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2005.

For all the aforementioned reasons above, it should not come as any surprise that the ULFA seeks to target Bihari and not Bangladeshi migrants in the state of Assam and with this understanding there is also a disconcerting realisation that the words of our PM are just that - words. After all, it would be very silly politics if the Congress were to target its only political ally in the state of Assam......

Elections in Bangladesh

For all the political turmoil being witnessed currently in Bangladesh, New Delhi has surprisingly been a quiet observer of the events unfolding in the tiny nation state. Unlike the time when another of India's neighbour's, Nepal, was witnessing political upheaval - a period accompanied by hectic parleys, nothing of the sort is being witnessed in the case of Bangladesh. This is indeed an ironic situation since political uncertainty seems to be rife in Bangladesh.

Since the caretaker Govt has come to power in Dhaka late last year, election boycott has been threatened by the Awami League Grand Coalition or the Maha Jote on various grounds including disagreement over the choice of the chief advisor to the caretaker Govt, the selection of the advisors, the deployment of the armed forces for electoral purposes and over the correction of the voter list. Eventually the AL led 19 party alliance refused to contest elections when the nomination papers of its constituent partner, Ershad of the JAPA party, were cancelled from 5 different constituencies. With the main opposition alliance withdrawing from the electoral process, the country seemed set to hold one party elections - a situation avoided only due to the pressure brought on by US, UK, the EU and the United Nations.The deafening silence from New Delhi seems odd to this analyst as events in Bangladesh obviously affect Indian domestic, regional and anti-terrorism policies. National Security Advisor, MK Narayanan's recent statement attesting to the presence of ULFA camps in Bangladesh along with various other separatist outfits further confounds the lack of a policy oriented response from New Delhi.

Could it be that New Delhi wants to avoid reacting to events in Dhaka, beyond the cursory and cautious statements, to prevent accusations of interference ahead of the SAARC summit? It does seem odd that India would stand on ceremony and not protect its interests in Bangladesh, it is also the only plausible reasoning that can be derived from the situation.

Lack of responses to situations in India's immediate neighbourhood could signal an ominous orientation,or lack thereof, to New Delhi's policies.