Down the opium path

Reports from Pakistan and Afghanistan indicate that the Taliban has run over the town of Musa Qala in the southern province of Helmand in Afghanistan. Besides highlighting the strength of a resurgent Taliban this development may just serve as an indicator of another chapter in the political fortunes of an already volatile nation besides posing some serious questions for India's presence and strategic relevance in the country.

Independent, Pashtun dominated and fierce tribal loyalty are not just norms but lessons of Afghanistan's volatile polity. Even today, despite having an elected government led by Hamid Karzai, it is a known fact that the writ of the government is not recognised beyond Kabul. Faced with a resurgent Taliban and increasing pressure from Nato forces and US administration, the Karzai government had recently begun to endorse alternative means that would accomodate rival centres of power whilst ensuring that the rule of law and order prevails in different parts of the country.

One such experiment was conducted in the Musa Qala district of Helmand province in Southern Afghanistan. Under constant attack by regrouped Taliban forces, the British struck a deal, brokered by the village and tribal elders and endorsed by then provincial Governor - Mohammed Daud, to bring about peace in the district. This deal was meant to meet the goals of each of the concerned parties: peace for the people of Musa Qala, withdrawal from an unnecessary conflict for the British, tacit acknowledgment of Taliban prominence in the region and, were peace to prevail in the region, a prototype that could be applied for all of Afghanistan. Most importantly the deal also underscored how the Taliban, Pashtun pride, ethnic divisions and tribal loyalty, all constituents in the Afghan polity, be incorporated without either of them having to appear as if they compromised. Under the clauses of the deal it was deemed that with the withdrawal of the British forces, law and order was to be maintained by a police force formed by the district itself and supervised by the tribal elders.

This deal unfortunately did not meet the approval of the Americans who neither supported the truce or the terms it was reached within. They vowed to disregard the terms of the deal and re-launch operations in the district but one of the first things they did was to get Governor Daud replaced as it was at his insistence that the deal was brokered. Recent reports that Musa Qala has been run over by the Taliban comes barely 3 months after the deal and seems to confirm the worst fears of the Americans for Afghanistan. It is a poppy growing region, a Taliban stronghold and dominated by Ghilzai Pashtuns who resent the favor being shown by Karzai to higher ranked Pashtuns such as himself (Durranis). It is pertinent to note here that the Ghilzai Pashtuns are being actively recruited by the Taliban to fill their ranks.

This development can lead to a single conclusion which would need to be urgently addressed by New Delhi. If Musa Qala is a precursor of the events to come in Afghanistan, what policy options would India have in the region? The intricacies of the country and its people would need to be understood fully before any policy is adopted and implemented by New Delhi. In the meantime the developments suit the strategic aims of Pakistan whilst ensuring that the return of the 'moderate' Taliban is all but an eventual certainty.