Nobel Military

Political turmoil of the last few months in Bangladesh appears to have now subsided under the oddest of circumstances. With tacit support of the Army, the caretaker government under chief advisor Fakruddin Ahmed has launched a massive drive against corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and terrorist masterminds in the country. In all more than 400 senior, mid level and grass root politicians, from both the BNP and the AL are being targeted with the majority already having been apprehended by joint forces. This kind of a top down effort at exorcising corrupt politicians and leaders of terrorist groups who receive and provide political patronage, from the system is indeed to be lauded by one and all, but it also raises several uncomfortable questions that remain to be answered.

For one, with the arrests of top BNP and especially AL leaders, New Delhi might definitely find the political base of its main ally in Dhaka - the Sheikh Hasina led Awami League party, shrunk. Two, while the Army chief, Lt Gen Moeen U Ahmed has gone on record and said that

"The army has no intention to take over. We are not even running the government. But we like to see this government successful as we want to put the country on the right track through concerted efforts of all"

it does not dispel doubts whether the Army and the caretaker government together would have ever felt empowered enough to carry out such a cleansing operation in Dhaka's murky politics. Thus rumours of a 'foreign power' being involved in the current developments cannot be dismissed with a foregone conclusion. The third and most relevant development till date has been the foray of Nobel Peace prize winner, Dr Mohammed Yunus into Bangladeshi politics. Announcing his decision to launch a political party, were he to be accepted by the Bangladeshi electorate is nothing more than a precursor to a more formal announcement. It begs to be questioned whether the good doctor is being supported by the same foreign power whose influence is being suspected in the current political drama, and, how effectively would Dr Yunus' party exploit the space being created on Bangladesh's political stage. Lastly and most importantly, with these developments taking place in Bangladesh, a change in New Delhi's policy towards Dhaka is hopefully anticipated to be one that takes into account the changed ground realities of the neighbouring country.

Previous posts on Bangladesh's recent political developments can be read here and here.

More on Bangladesh

A recent newspaper report from Bangladesh alleges that the bomb attack on Awami League leader, Sheikh Hasina was carried out by the ULFA who had in turn received assistance from the Bangladeshi intelligence agency, the National Security Intelligence (NSI). If this is indeed proven true then it would confirm the link between ULFA and Dhaka. A discerning piece by former Chief of IB, M K Dhar reiterates the same. The two articles can be read from the following links:

http://thedailystar.net/2007/01/22/d7012201044.htm

and

http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jan/19guest.htm

With this understanding in hand and the rationale for the attacks on Bihari migrants as opposed to illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam, one has to wonder when New Delhi would initiate any action against an outfit that is clearly targetting Indian interests.

The curious case of Assam

The good Doctor's recent statement in Tinsukhia, Assam addresses the plight of the innocent Bihari migrant whilst asserting the UPA Govt's policy in the following manner:

“no one should mistake our openness for talks as a sign of weakness. I would like to make it clear that there is no room for violence and it will not be tolerated. At the same time, I will also emphasise that all problems can be sorted out through dialogue.......The Indian state has an obligation to provide security and protect the lives of its law-abiding citizens. This we will discharge, let there be no doubt on that score.”

While the speech may indeed have been inspiring and rousing, it is yet another reflection of the difference of opinion between the Government and the Congress party. Perhaps the affable Dr. Singh is not aware of the fact that the Congress came to power in Assam last year, only after having received the endorsement of the ULFA - the very outfit New Delhi seeks to now target.

There are other links here as well which are disconcerting. One, the ULFA is known to receive logistic and financial support from Islamic terrorist outfits operating out of Bangladesh. Two, because of its proximity to Bangladesh, Assam attracts the maximum number of illegal Bangladeshi migrants who have over the years become a source for vote bank politics, especially for the Congress. Three, that the Congress does not discriminate between illegal migrants and Indian citizens becomes evident with its desire to re-introduce the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act with a few necessary amendments after the same was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2005.

For all the aforementioned reasons above, it should not come as any surprise that the ULFA seeks to target Bihari and not Bangladeshi migrants in the state of Assam and with this understanding there is also a disconcerting realisation that the words of our PM are just that - words. After all, it would be very silly politics if the Congress were to target its only political ally in the state of Assam......

Elections in Bangladesh

For all the political turmoil being witnessed currently in Bangladesh, New Delhi has surprisingly been a quiet observer of the events unfolding in the tiny nation state. Unlike the time when another of India's neighbour's, Nepal, was witnessing political upheaval - a period accompanied by hectic parleys, nothing of the sort is being witnessed in the case of Bangladesh. This is indeed an ironic situation since political uncertainty seems to be rife in Bangladesh.

Since the caretaker Govt has come to power in Dhaka late last year, election boycott has been threatened by the Awami League Grand Coalition or the Maha Jote on various grounds including disagreement over the choice of the chief advisor to the caretaker Govt, the selection of the advisors, the deployment of the armed forces for electoral purposes and over the correction of the voter list. Eventually the AL led 19 party alliance refused to contest elections when the nomination papers of its constituent partner, Ershad of the JAPA party, were cancelled from 5 different constituencies. With the main opposition alliance withdrawing from the electoral process, the country seemed set to hold one party elections - a situation avoided only due to the pressure brought on by US, UK, the EU and the United Nations.The deafening silence from New Delhi seems odd to this analyst as events in Bangladesh obviously affect Indian domestic, regional and anti-terrorism policies. National Security Advisor, MK Narayanan's recent statement attesting to the presence of ULFA camps in Bangladesh along with various other separatist outfits further confounds the lack of a policy oriented response from New Delhi.

Could it be that New Delhi wants to avoid reacting to events in Dhaka, beyond the cursory and cautious statements, to prevent accusations of interference ahead of the SAARC summit? It does seem odd that India would stand on ceremony and not protect its interests in Bangladesh, it is also the only plausible reasoning that can be derived from the situation.

Lack of responses to situations in India's immediate neighbourhood could signal an ominous orientation,or lack thereof, to New Delhi's policies.