One of the most admirable facets of American style democracy is the ability of small ethnic groups to emerge as influential blocs in electoral events including the Presidential elections of year 2004. If the bloc happens to be represented by the relatively large population of approximately 3.5 million Arab Americans, tracking their participation in the Presidential elections becomes an important indicator of the potential outcome of the race to the White House. The Arab Americans uniquely represent the influencing aspect of having juxtaposed domestic policies with foreign policy. This interplay of domestic and foreign policies and its relative impact on Arab Americans becomes an area of study especially since 9/11.
Therefore, tactically speaking the factors influencing them in the post 9/11 world would have to be accounted before assessing their broader political inclinations. First, there is obvious insecurity reflected at the domestic front, for the Arab Americans, especially post 9/11 when greater scrutiny is being accorded to an immigrant’s country of origin. Second coming from a region as contentious as the Middle East means that the political outlook of the Arab Americans is expected to be influenced by the broader political agenda of the United States in the Middle East. Thus, shaping a politically viable and feasible identity in the United States has become crucial for the Arab Americans. There are visible attempts by the Arab Americans to align themselves with mainstream America and its concerns. A poll conducted by the Arab American Institute in 2000 showed that 85.5% of the Arab American population are registered voters with 14.5% of registered voters contributing to a Presidential campaign. Poll results conducted in April 2004 show that the rank order of issues for the Arab American community appears to be no different than mainstream America. Economy, healthcare and terrorism round off the top three choices for them. This indicator is startling as it is contrary to a widely held opinion that their biggest concern was the crisis in the The question that now remains to be answered is whether Arab Americans can be counted as a viable political constituency in the Presidential race? Polls conducted by Zogby International for the Arab American Institute take into account the Arab American voters in four key battleground states i.e. Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The reason to look into the trends in these states is important as Arab Americans are widely represented in these states. Interestingly in 2000, Michigan and Pennsylvania were won by Gore, while Bush won Ohio and Florida was a virtual tie for both candidates. But amongst Arab American voters the results in these states were reversed. Bush beat Gore by a margin of 46 to 29 with Nader receiving 13%. Year 2004 could turn these results on their head as polls predict that Kerry is in a position to beat Bush by a margin of 45 to 28 with Nader remaining at 13%. This would represent a swing of 170, 000 votes in what are potentially decisive states this year.
John Kerry ought to take heart from the fact that he still commands a double - digit lead over President Bush amongst Arab Americans in these four states. While the ‘compassionate conservative’ platform may have attracted the Arab electorate in 2000 President Bush’s policies towards the Arab region have not reflected the same. The Bush administration has followed, along the line of many an administration before them, a pro – Israel policy. The difference lay in the policies followed after Sept 11 vis-à-vis Arab countries and the subsequent war on terrorism. This may be the key to understanding the dramatic shift amongst the Arab electorate. Ironically the Arab electorate remains an after thought with both campaign strategies. Both President Bush and Senator Kerry have been courting the American Jews, separately through policy statements and stump speeches. Strategically speaking both candidates should acknowledge the role of Arab Americans especially in a race that is so closely fought. Further the race also provides a caveat in the shape of Ralph Nader who interestingly is of Arab American heritage and could prove to win more than the projected 13% eventually. Any
substantial gain by Nader would spell into an even bigger loss for John Kerry who is already
haunted by the substantial voter bloc claimed by Nader in the 2000 elections.
Therefore both tactically and strategically it would be important to factor in the role that the Arab Americans can provide to either of the candidates in the November elections. From all angles the Arab electorate in the United States seems more than up to the task. It remains up to the candidates and their campaigns to utilize their presence.
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