Sunday, November 19, 2006

Musharraf in China

Pakistan President Musharraf’s recent three day visit to China saw a new chapter of warm and friendly bilateral ties for the two countries. The visit was a reminder for others to see how strong the ties between the two countries had remained and also how they could come to pose a strategic and military challenge, to others, in the subcontinent. The expressions of bonhomie were resonating even in the joint declaration, presented at the end of Musharraf’s visit, which called bilateral ties “exemplary”.

Signed by Presidents Pervez Musharraf and Hu Jintao, a declaration also described cooperation between the two countries as an "indispensable" factor towards maintaining peace and stability in Asia. Congratulatory plaudits were expressed by both countries with Musharraf even calling the partnership as being "deeper than the oceans, higher than the mountains". The statements made by the Pakistani camp, during Musharraf’s three day visit focused explicitly on the growing economic prowess of China in the subcontinent and also the world. Therefore it should come as no surprise that the real essence of the three day visit lay in the economic undertones of the agreements that were signed between the two countries. For instance of the eight accords signed between China and Pakistan, export of goods, tariff cuts, preferential trade agreement, infrastructure development etc featured prominently. Pakistani and Chinese business signed joint ventures amounting to $220 million and Gen Musharraf also hinted at the setting up of an Exclusive Economic Zone to further the existing volumes of trade.

The second and more obvious area of cooperation between the two countries lay in the defense sector. Ironically while the Pakistanis came away with renewed commitments on defense cooperation between the two countries they were not able to secure China’s assistance in building the second stage of the Chashma nuclear plant in Pakistan. The Chinese have assisted Pakistan in building the first stage of the nuclear facility but have resisted in actively providing logistical support for the second stage. There could be a couple of probable reasons which may be influencing their thinking which may enforced this waiting period upon Pakistan. On the one hand the Chinese decision of not signing on the dotted line, despite tacitly agreeing to assist Pakistan, may probably have been taken in light of the international furor being raised over the nuclear developments of Iran and North Korea. On the other hand the US has been putting additional pressure on the Chinese to prevent them from providing active support to the Pakistanis and had the agreement been signed, both countries would have stood accused of further raising the tensions in the subcontinent by actively aiding nuclear proliferation. Thus the Chinese gesture may be seen as a practice which successfully accommodates international concerns and regional constraints for the immediate future.

That the Pakistan camp was hopeful, that the agreement would come through officially, can be made out from the statement by a foreign ministry official who had claimed that all technical agreements would be signed during the summit meeting. But all is not lost on the defense front for Pakistan. The two sides had recently conducted joint naval exercises off the coast of Shanghai, the first such exercise for the Chinese navy. The defense bonhomie continues even further with both sides having agreed to further their defense cooperation with the manufacturing of tanks and the testing of the fighter jet Super – 7. It should be noted here that the Pakistani military establishment heavily relies on the China’s military support especially with the restrictions that are in place for its purchases from the US.

So where does this mutual camaraderie leave India in the political power play of South Asia. The best option would probably be to have a non speculative approach on the current bonhomie between India’s two neighbours. There is an increasing recognition that the closeness shared between two neighbours may not necessarily close the doors on other aspects. Therefore parallel processes between India and China are being exploited which could rival the developments on the other front. On the economic and strategic front a new openness in discussions is signaling a new dimension in relations on this side also.

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